The completion of the High Speed 2 railway could be delayed again as the government carries out a cost-cutting exercise.
Early visualisation of an HS2 train
Citing Department for Transport (DfT) officials, the Financial Times reported that the government has started work on “Project Silverlight”, which is looking at how it can cut costs through delays and cuts to the scope of Phase 1 of the railway, which runs between London and Birmingham.
“This is a function of inflation, we are having to find huge savings because the cost of everything the department is already doing will have become so much more expensive by then,” a government official told the FT.
The official budget for HS2’s first phase is £44.6bn, including contingency funding, but that’s at 2019 prices, so it will have risen even without the current high inflation rate. Last October, the transport secretary Mark Harper confirmed that the railway was under pressure to come in under budget and that plans were being looked at to bring the project back in under budget.
However, while inflation is at the moment high, delaying the project doesn’t save money unless inflation were to turn negative. Even if inflation returns to the target two percent range, costs will still be rising by 2 percent a year. Delays due to inflation do not save money.
If inflation is the trigger, then bringing the project forward would save money, not the other way around.
There is though an argument that could be put forward that some of the inflationary pressures are more intense for HS2 due to construction supply constraints — with inflation hitting 18% against general consumer price inflation of 10.1% last September. Therefore a modest delay may reduce supply chain pressures and help pull construction inflation down, but if so, it’s likely to be in the range of months instead of years worth of delays — and well within the 2029-33 range for opening the railway between Birmingham and Old Oak Common.
A second project, called “Operation Blue Diamond” is looking at cost cutting across the entire HS2 railway line, including the potential for further cuts to the already truncated eastern spur of the railway.
The review is said to be looking at cutting the remaining 60km section of the eastern leg that was to have run between East Midlands Parkway to Leeds, but had already been cut back two years ago, with a more limited upgrade of the existing railway line. Another option being looked at is cancelling the Handsacre Link, just outside Birmingham, which has been designed to allow HS2 trains to reach Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire.
Those cuts would however effectively negate much of the benefit of HS2 north of Birmingham, which is to add capacity to the rail network so that more regional and commuter services can be added to the existing railway tracks.
The FT said that both reviews would run until the summer with no final decisions made before then.
These reviews hardly ever result in any actual savings just the cost of lots of consultants.
Remember in 2010 the coalition government cut £1bn from the cost of crossrail by delaying construction to save money but in reality it cost more.
How much has been saved for example by the redesign of Euston as part of HS2 when you take into account the millions and millions 2 sets of designs have cost?
One becomes very accustomed to required vast quantities of patience for constructing any major project in the UK, whether it be infrastructure (rail, motorways etc), particularly if it is strategic, such as the recently opened Crossrail.
HST phases 1-3 requires such patience. However, with delays driven by short term annual budget economies, as noted, these end up with higher long term costs and years of missed service and the strategic benefits of connecting all the major metropolitan areas of the UK by high speed rail, including to Europe, are severely compromised, at least for the next generation.
While some short term delay is understood due to Covid and post covid labour and material supplies issues, if anything, perhaps now is the time to really plan to deliver the whole HST system phases 1-3 with more ambition over the next couple of decades, and not to whittle down to connections only between London, Birmingham and Manchester/Liverpool by end of 2040 or so, ie Phases 1-1.5.
HS2 needs to be, and probably will be, a line from Old Oak Common to Crewe, with a branch to Birmingham, and that is it.
And then it would be totally useless and a total waste of money
John
Ah. you want more road pollution & flying, do you?
Or, are you one of those people who believe HS rail is only suitable for those nasty foreigners across the channel?
Yes, it’s a snark!
Well, at the end of all this, we’ll have a spectacular viaduct spanning the Colne Valley – handy for cyclists and walkers – and a couple of unfinished tunnels under the Chilterns which could provide shelter in the event of nuclear war.
@bob london-funny but I seriously hope not.
Bring HS2 back up to leeds!