Elizabeth line beats forecasts with over 500 million journeys since it opened
Over 500 million journeys have been made on the Elizabeth line since it opened in May 2022, new figures from Transport for London (TfL) show.
That is substantially higher than TfL had expected before the line opened, when they were predicting post-pandemic passenger numbers would be in the range of 104m to 136m passenger journeys per year when it was fully open, rising to 130m to 170m per year by 2026.
During its busiest times, more than 800,000 journeys are being taken on the railway daily.
That is only marginally below the pre-pandemic predictions for the Elizabeth line of around 200 million passenger journeys per year, but TfL now expects to exceed that figure this year.
The unplanned requirement for the Elizabeth line to act as a shuttle for HS2 passengers between Old Oak Common and central London will likely see the railway surge past even the most optimistic of predictions in the 2030s.
As part of the Crossrail project requirements, post-opening impact reports are required, and the latest covering the Elizabeth line’s impact up to October 2023 has been published.
The evaluation study interim findings report has also found that improved cross-river connections are particularly welcomed around the Abbey Wood branch, where there has been an 11 percent increase in access to employment. There has also been a six percent uplift in job accessibility along the Heathrow terminals branch.
There has been an increase in housing growth within one kilometre of an Elizabeth line station, with growth 14 percent higher in east London and eight percent higher in west London between 2017 and 2022, according to analysis in the new benefits report. Abbey Wood has emerged as one of the largest regeneration areas in London, with a six percent increase in new homes alongside expectations for further development over the next five years.
Meanwhile, additional analysis by TfL has also found that between 2015 and 2022, there were 378,000 jobs created within one kilometre of Elizabeth line stations. During this period, the highest job growth in central London occurred around Liverpool Street station, as it prepared to welcome even more activity as part of the Elizabeth line.
The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said: “The Elizabeth line has been a game-changer for the city, transforming travel in London and unlocking investment through the creation of new jobs and homes. With its growing popularity, the Elizabeth line is proving itself to be essential to London and the UK’s transport network and helping to build a better, more prosperous London for everyone.
“The evidence from the success of the Elizabeth line is clear – when you invest in high-quality transport infrastructure it can provide huge benefits for increased jobs, growth and the new housing we need in London and across the country.”
The report found that despite the delays, cost overruns, and pandemic effect on public transport, the Elizabeth line is still delivering a cost-to-benefit ratio of 1.9 to 1 (£1.90 of benefit for every £1 spent), and when wider economic benefits are included, even better returns are generated.
Approximately two-thirds of Elizabeth line journeys have been passengers switching from other rail services, reducing overcrowding on those services. However, about a third of passenger journeys appear to be people switching from bus or car—or people making journeys they wouldn’t have made at all.
The impact on new journeys being made was seen more at the edges of the line, where the line has generally improved connectivity, and less so in the core where alternative rail options already existed. The increase in people travelling at all is partially also supported by the rise in people wil mobility difficulties being able to travel, which would have proved a challenge on the older parts of the Underground.
One passenger survey quote reflected this: “My wife uses a wheelchair, and we travel together much more often now. It’s been fantastic.”
The report does warn that some of the effect might fade over time as the popularity of the line leads to overcrowding, and disuading some people from using it. That might be slightly mitigated by future upgrades, as ten more trains are on order already and there is potential to lengthen the 9-car trains to carry more passengers.
The report said that the busiest parts of the line at between Whitechapel and Liverpool Street, and that although passenger numbers using the line from Heathrow have surged, it hasn’t led to overcrowding. That seems at odds with human experience, and may be the case if the reports are only counting humans and not their luggage.
The report also found big increases in passengers arriving at stations along the western branch of the line, although interesting, a decline at Hanwell, as they suspect people are opting to use National Rail services at nearby Southall instead.
Early problems with the line’s reliability, particuarly on the National Rail’s western branch have dented confidence in the Elizabeth line, which may have affected the uptake of people using the line for new social travel. Although as there are also complaints that station car parks are overcrowded since the line opens seems to show people will always find something to complain about — it’s too unreliable and too popular.
Overall, the findings tend to support the Theory of Change on mode shift, which stated that the Elizabeth line was expected to increase the number of public transport trips through a combination of mode shift and trip generation.
Like anything, it’s not perfect and the report highlights many justified problems and more that are maybe with the benefit of hindsight would have been fixed before the line opened, but can be fixed now they are an issue.
A future, second post-opening study will analyse wider socio-economic impacts and is due to be commissioned by 2025.
The new reports are here.
The operational services was introduced in stages:
- May 2015: TfL Rail between Liverpool Street mainline and Shenfield
- June 2017: The introduction of new trains (Class 345) in the east between Liverpool Street mainline and Shenfield
- May 2018: TfL Rail between Heathrow Airport and Paddington mainline using new trains (Class 345) to Hayes & Harlington
- December 2019: TfL Rail between Reading and Paddington mainline using new trains (Class 345)
- July 2020: The introduction of new trains (Class 345) to Heathrow
- May 2022: Launch of the Elizabeth line with the introduction of a 12-trains-per-hour service between Abbey Wood and Paddington via the central section and rebranding of the east and west sections from TfL Rail to Elizabeth line
- November 2022: Increase in service levels and integration of services in the east and west, with the central operating section between Reading/Heathrow and Abbey Wood/Shenfield
- May 2023: Full end-to-end railway and peak service levels
If only the government would see how important projects like this are to the future of this country! But I suppose why would any government invest in something that takes 20 years to develop, when they won’t get any of the credit! Shame really
National Rail services at nearby Southall instead? I thought they removed all non Liz services from Southall. Hanwell I think suffering from not being a regular stop and skipped most the time.
Agree with Mmh. There aren’t any National Rail services at Southall, and it isn’t exactly “nearby”. I suspect the Hanwell numbers are more reflective of severe overcrowding in the peak hours (due to bizarre timetabling), the fact that it has no ticket gate-line and the closeness to West Ealing with has more trains.
The underserved stations at Acton Main Line and Hanwell really need to be addressed. West Ealing gained 6tph last year if I remember correctly.
4tph in rush hour is ridiculous considering the popularity of the line as stated in this article.
Combine that with the “human experience” of large amounts of suitcases taking up lots of room as the trains that serve AML and Hanwell all come from Heathrow, with only one train between 8-9am originating from Reading/Maidenhead.
How did they get their estimates so embarrassingly wrong?
They didn’t.
I am very surprised to see the reference to Hanwell having fewer passengers – that does not accord with my own observations since the new four times an hour service was introduced. The station seems to me to be busier than ever and the new Sunday service is especially welcome. Hanwell locals are much more likely in my view to travel inwards to West Ealing and/or Ealing Broadway (as an alternative to Hanwell) than out to Southall in order to reach central London. If the service was increased to six trains an hour and there were fewer service curtailments due to signal problems or engineering works, I am sure the Hanwell figures would rise very significantly.
The Elizabeth Line has transformed movement across London, both directly from east to west and vice versa but also as many stations on the line act as a jumping off point for train and underground connections to north and south London. The line has played a huge part in opening up the capital and facilitating movement between previously unconnected areas. Living in west London I was surprised by the comments on Hanwell station where levels of usage have, to my best knowledge, soared sincè the Elizabeth line opened. This station is 2 and a half miles from Southall station and I would question whether Hanwell résidents would choose to use Southall station as an alternative as is being suggested.
Maggie and Gareth, you’re both using the same computer IP address to say the same thing – are you two people or one person pretending to be two people.