Not just damned lies: why you need to embrace statistics

Join Alex Bottle, Professor of Medical Statistics for his Inaugural Lecture.

Few people would say statistics was their favourite subject at school or university. But even fewer would doubt its importance, particularly in monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and our country’s capacity to respond to it. A mountain of patient-level data is collected by the NHS and health systems overseas, and it has a lot to tell us about how the health service is performing and who is at high risk of future poor health. But how should that be done? And how should statistical methods be taught to people who know or care nothing of maths?

Professor Alex Bottle has worked since 2002 to show how administrative patient data can identify potential healthcare performance anomalies. After comparing methods to see whether convicted murderer and GP Harold Shipman could have been spotted earlier, Alex developed algorithms to highlight above-expected death rates within hospitals. This process repeatedly identified Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust as worthy of investigation, leading to the initial review that prompted a number of high-profile inquiries.

Alex’s lecture will chart the history of patient data and statistics to monitor healthcare performance and how patients use healthcare services. He will also reflect on his recent initiatives to train the public sector and the next generation of researchers around the world in statistical thinking.

Biography

Professor Alex Bottle is Professor of Medical Statistics, is based in the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, and is co-director of the Dr Foster Unit. He trained in statistics and epidemiology before coming to Imperial in 1997. He was elected a Member of the Faculty of Public Health in 2015.

His current research focuses on exploring variations in healthcare performance including compliance with clinical guidelines and outcomes in patients with heart failure, prediction of flare-ups in chronic lung disease, and complications after hip and knee replacements. Since secondment to the Shipman Inquiry, he was instrumental in prompting the national regulator’s investigation into emergency services at Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust. He has since had a range of national and international advisory roles on hospital performance data. As a statistics trainer, his clients have included Public Health England, HMRC, the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, and several Local Authorities.

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