Dennis Anderson Lecture 2017: Peak oil demand and long-run oil prices

Dennis Anderson Lecture 2017: Peak oil demand and long-run oil prices

Energy Futures Lab are delighted to host Spencer Dale, Group Chief Economist at BP plc, for this year's Dennis Anderson lecture. Spencer will discuss the issues and ideas around "peak oil" and the implications this will have for the behaviour of global oil markets.

Abstract

Oil markets are facing a paradigm shift.  For much of the past 50 years, global oil has been dominated by the belief that oil resources are likely to become increasingly scarce over time as ever increasing amounts of oil are consumed.  But the combination of growing climate concerns and technological improvements means that concerns about peak oil supply have been debunked.  The world isn’t going to run out of oil.  Instead, attention is increasingly focussing on the possibility of peak oil demand.  This lecture by Spencer Dale will consider the implications of this paradigm shift: from an age of scarcity to an age of abundance.
Dale will argue that much of the recent popular debate considering when oil demand is likely to peak is misplaced.  The point at which oil demand will peak is highly uncertain and not particularly interesting.  Rather, the real importance of peak oil demand is the broader implications this paradigm shift will have for the behaviour of global oil markets and the political and social challenges it poses for major oil producing countries.  The lecture will also discuss the implications of this regime shift for the determination of oil prices, highlighting the important role that the success of economic and social reforms in oil producing economies will play in determining oil prices in the longer run.

Biography

Spencer Dale joined BP plc as Group Chief Economist in October 2014. Prior to that, he was Executive Director for Financial stability at the Bank of England and a member of the Financial Policy Committee.Between 2008 and 2014, Spencer was Chief Economist of the Bank of England and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee. Spencer joined the Bank of England in 1989 and served in numerous roles, including Private Secretary to Mervyn King and Head of Economic Forecasting.
Spencer served as a Senior Advisor at the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors between 2006 and 2008.

The Dennis Anderson lectures

The Dennis Anderson lecture is Energy Futures Lab’s flagship annual energy policy lecture and run in conjunction with the Imperial Centre for Energy Policy and Technology. The series is organised in commemoration of the huge contribution to the energy-environment debate provided by Professor Dennis Anderson.

Venue

The talk will be in Physics Lecture Theatre 1 in the Blackett Laboratory, the Department of Physics, Imperial College London, South Kensington, London SW7 2AZ.

This is building number 6 on the campus map. The quickest and easiest way there is to enter via the entrance on Prince Consort Road. The entrance for the lecture theatre is at the top of the stairs on your left hand side as you come into the building.