The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has issued a warning that an entire Tube line could close if the Government does not grant TfL the emergency and long-term funding it needs to maintain the capital’s transport services.
Speaking earlier today at the Centre for London conference, he repeated a warning that has been circulating for the past week.
The Mayor said “I agree with the Government and Mayors across the country when they say other regions should have ‘London-style’ transport services. But the irony is that a failure to provide enough operational and capital funding for TfL means that it won’t be long before London itself will no longer have ‘London-style’ transport services.”
However, at the moment there’s no information as to which tube line could close, or what the financial implications would be.
If a line needs to close, in order for that to lead to savings, with the exception of the Waterloo & City line, closing a stand-alone line could only deliver savings if the drivers are also laid-off, as it would take a long time to retrain them to work on other lines. That would then also mean it would take ages to reopen a line, assuming the unions accepted that in the first place.
Speculating then – it’s possible that if a line were to be closed, it would be one of the sub-surface lines where there are overlaps with other lines to allow staff to be redeployed while delivering savings in lower running costs due to the trains not in use. That could see, for example, the Circle line closed, which would be a headline-grabbing decision while also being vastly less damaging to London than for example, closing the Northern line.
The savings from closing, for example, the Circle line would be less than from closing another line, but it would also be much easier to carry out.
The current funding deal that keeps TfL running is due to expire on 11th December 2021. TfL is currently seeking £500m in operational support through to the end of the financial year 2021/22, and around £1.2bn will be needed for the financial year 2022/23.
TfL is unusual compared to other major city public transport networks in being dependent on revenue from ticket sales for 72 per cent of its income, which is unusually high by international standards.
Although there is an argument that increased working from home has reduced the long term passenger numbers on London’s public transport, that reduction is likely to be concentrated in the higher earning office workers. If TfL is left to fund the majority of its services from fares as it currently has to, that cost burden will fall more heavily on those who can’t work from home, and those people typically tend to be at the lower end of the pay scale.
A TfL that remains so heavily dependent on fares income would therefore increase inequality in London by forcing the lower paid to pay more to get to work.
I guess you could “wish” the District Line away… just hand Upminster to Barking to the H&C Line and make Wimbledon to Gloucester Road the “Circle Line” and stop the Pic lines where you can between Acton Town and Earl’s Court!
I guess the Bakerloo could be changed in the north to more Overground services (and a Queens Park to Paddington bus service?) and put in Walking Routes for Regent’s Park and Lambeth North?
This game is entertaining!
How about making Metropolitan Line Aldgate to Watford and Uxbridge only? Or cutting Woodford to Hainault?
Perhaps hit areas outside London, or Conservative strongholds?
Hours of fun to be had I have to agree 😁
The sub surface lines are a separate network. Giving part of the District to the H&C would achieve nothing except the cost of changing publicity, timetables, etc. To save money they have to reduce train miles – shorten journeys and/or cut out some journeys altogether.
Andy T: I thought the “game” was “cut an entire line”!
Colin Newman: Of course! But this is the “game” of “we might have to cut an entire line”.
Of course it would achieve nothing, it doesn’t have to, it’s a bargaining position.
Speculating on how this could be done for the minimum of damage/disruption seems a little paradoxical. Isn’t the Mayor’s whole purpose here to threaten something so dire it forces the government to provide more funding? If so, why not threaten to close the Jubilee line? Proposing to close a line that serves Westminster and is named for the Queen would seem like the best way to put the screws to the government.
I hear the Bakerloo line is more likely to be closed because,
1. The trains are old and rattly
2. It runs alongside the Northern, Jubilee, Circle, District, H&C lines, and the Overground. So this line is destined for the chop unlike the Jubilee Line.
That makes some sense looking at the map. Ultimately they’d look at the expected impact on the balance sheet. Seems a lot of bakerloo line journeys as destinations can be reach with other lines
Still would be a shock to have it close
Given how the Bakerloo Line is operated with the equivalent of TVs using valves and is covered by the Overground north of Queens Park it’s the most likely to be closed. However, with work at Euston Station for HS2 and station rebuilding it might not be possible to guarantee a service long term !
One alternative would be to cut back the Metropolitan line from Uxbridge along with cuts in bus services in Ruislip and Uxbridge and tell anyone who complains to see their MP !
Severing the circle line would make many journeys difficult although the extra wide platform at Whitechapel Station could act as an interchange….
It’s worth remembering that during the lockdown TFL upgrades almost ground a halt whereas Government controlled Network Rail investment was boosted to take advantage of the lack of passengers !
Closing the circle line would make a big headline. I was toying with the idea of cutting off the met line at Baker Street, just terminate everything there. If you did that and closed the Circle, you could shut Aldgate station…
Or close the circle but extend the met service beyond Aldgate to overlap the District to make up for the circle being closed. Maybe not such large savings but less impact on service.
Alternatively, close the H&C, now the Circle goes out to Hammersmith.
Some might depend on journey data – how many people go through on the H&C where it would be split into Circle and District? I don’t know, but I bet TfL can get a really good idea.
Where would the Metropolitan line terminate if not Aldgate? Kensington Olympia hasn’t got the capacity and the high number of District Line services around Earl’s Court are the responsibility is the reason for such limited service.
I suggest closing the Elizabeth Line and give it to Grest Western railway or Greater Anglia.
Fully commercialise bus routes like the do outside London and put the London Overground back to the National Rail network.
They way there will be little or no funding for buses or Overground and money could be used for Londo Underground. Income from the Underground funds bus services, a service that is creating a loss and children travelling free isn’t helping either.
Cut off the Met line to Uxbridge & shorten the Picc. to Rayners Lane. After all, who is the MP for Uxbridge?
Come to that, shut the entire Met North of Baker Street, for similar reasons,
Bingo
Closing Aldgate Station is a different matter from closing that part of the Circle line. I guess the bay roads at Plaistow, Barking and Dagenham East could take up the slack.
Running a rerouted Metropolitan service from Uxbridge – Liverpool Street to West Ham and/or Plaistow could replace H&C services east of Liverpool Street, leaving the existing Circle services to serve Aldgate etc.
Cut the Wimbledon and Edgware Road and also Olympia branch on the District line. Interchange for Edgware Road can be made at Gloucester Road by Circle line. West Kensington station is close enough to Olympia via North End Road. London Overground and Southern connections can be made at West Brompton.
Although fantasy line closures are nearly as enjoyable as fantasy line openings, the Mayor has the Straight Flush here. De-Piffle isn’t going to be able to stomach tube line closures on his watch, and Khan knows it.
Let’s be real, this is just political posturing to ensure they get the govt handouts “oh we couldn’t possibly save money, we’d have to shut a line. We couldn’t possibly find savings elsewhere. We need to pretend the only option is to close a line, because the public will hate that”
If I were government, I’ll call Khan’s bluff on this one. Or offer to take TfL into DfT ownership…
The last thing the Government wants is to directly run TfL.
A transparent and foolish threat from a Mayor who is way, way out of his depth.
Meanwhile TfL still have about 400 staff being paid over £100,000
Lots of enjoyable speculation, but I repeat a comment from an earlier news story: London has to keep moving, or the entire Country will feel the pain. I cannot understand how the PM has the audacity to refuse TFL funding — yes, perhaps some working for it are overpaid, but certainly fewer than overpaid MPs!— when it’s clear that Fees will never again pay for Service in the ongoing
Age of Covid. This should actually never have been the basis for running London’s transport system in the first place.
If I have to vote on a line closure, I agree on Bakerloo (ancient cars and Stations, which could be turned into heritage sites?!), and Elizabeth Line (too new and costly; give it to a rail company to run).
1. Bakerloo-Reverse 12 tph at Queens Park and the remaining 6 tph will continue to Harrow and Wealdstone.
12 tph between Elephant and Castle and Queens Park.
6 tph between Elephant and Castle and Harrow and Wealdstone.
18 tph in core section between Queens Park and Elephant and Castle.
2. Central-Withdraw the Central line between Ruislip Gardens and West Ruislip and divert it to Uxbridge instead. Also operate a shuttle service between Woodford and Hainault every 15 minutes(4tph).
12 tph between Uxbridge and Epping.
4 tph between North Acton and Loughton.
8 tph between Ealing Broadway and Hainault via Newbury Park.
4 tph between Ealing Broadway and Newbury Park.
4 tph between Woodford and Hainault.
3. Circle-Close the Hammersmith and City line and double the Circle line frequency to Hammersmith in order to compensate for the loss of the Hammersmith and City line.
12 tph between Hammersmith and Edgware Road.
4. District- Close the Olympia branch. Also introduce stepping back at Upminster to reverse more trains there and to increase capacity.
10 tph between Upminster and Ealing Broadway.
10 tph between Upminster and Richmond.
10 tph between Upminster and Wimbledon.
10 tph between Edgware Road and Wimbledon.
5. Jubilee- I would leave it as it is.
6. Metropolitan- Cut both Amersham and Chesham branches off the Metropolitan line. Metropolitan line trains will be truncated at Rickmansworth. Chiltern line will take over the Metropolitan line to Amersham and Aylesbury, whilst Chesham Station will close. Also, enhance the frequency of the Uxbridge branch. The Metropolitan line will only concentrate on Aldgate to Uxbridge and Watford.
12 tph between Aldgate and Uxbridge.
4 tph between Aldgate and Watford.
4 tph between Baker Street and Rickmansworth.
4 tph between Baker Street and Uxbridge.
24 tph in core section between Baker Street and Harrow on the Hill.
7. Northern-Close Mill Hill East Station. Also, segregate the Morden and Clapham Junction branches from the Edgware and High Barnet branches.
15 tph between Edgware and Clapham Junction via Charing Cross.
15 tph between High Barnet and Morden via Bank.
8. Piccadilly- Cut the Piccadilly line back to Rayners Lane at all times. Truncating the Piccadilly line at Rayners Lane will save money, tube mileage and frees up extra stock for the Heathrow branch. 6 tph will reverse at Rayners Lane using the reversing siding. You will not need more than 6 tph to Rayners Lane. Also, stepping back should be introduced at Rayners Lane in order to reduce the standing time in the siding and to increase capacity. Detrainment staff and station staff should be dispatched on the Westbound platform at Rayners Lane for terminating Piccadilly line trains to reduce the turnaround time and standing time. Rayners Lane will regularly reverse Piccadilly line trains every 10 minutes in the reversing siding. Also, the frequency on the Heathrow branch should be enhanced to a train every 3 minutes(20tph).Stepping back should be introduced at Cockfosters to reverse more trains there and to increase capacity. Piccadilly line trains reversing at Arnos Grove should be reduced and minimal to 2-3 tph.
10 tph between Cockfosters and Heathrow Terminal 4.
10 tph between Cockfosters and Heathrow Terminal 5.
6 tph between Cockfosters and Rayners Lane.
2 tph between Arnos Grove and South Harrow.
28 tph in core section between Arnos Grove and Acton Town.
Victoria-I would also leave it as it is.
Waterloo and City- Close the Waterloo and City line.